⚽ BETTING ON GOALSCORERS ⚽
How betting on goalscorers ? In this article on goalscorers, we’ll give you everything we have to help you improve your goalscoring prognosis : the important things to check, the tools available, interesting sites, players to choose… In short, at the end of this article we’ll have given you an overview of the issue ! Goaaaaaal !
How to bet WELL on scorers ?
The rules :
The “Striker” bet bets on a player who will have to score at least one goal during the 90 minutes of a football match.
If the concept seems quite simple, it is however necessary to take into account certain specificities present on our dear bookmakers :
- Your bet is refunded if the player does not play during the match.
- Your bet loses if the player is injured during the match.
- It is not taken into account if the player scores in his own goal.
- Your bet is taken into account even if the player only plays the last five minutes of the game.
- Your bet loses if the player scores in overtime (valid for 90 minutes only).
The types of predictions "Striker" :
There is an increasing market offer for this type of “goalscoring” prognosis.
Here is a list of all the predictions available on the bookmakers :
- Single goalscorer : the player scores during the match (excluding extra time)
- Scorer scores and his team wins
- Goalscorer scores and his team draws
- Scorer scores and his team loses
- Goalscorer scores a double / triple
- First goalscorer (the player is the first to score in the match)
- Last scorer (the player is the last to score in the match)
- Next live goalscorer (the player is the next to score during the match)
- Bet first goalscorer of the team (the player is the first to score during the match for the team)
- Double chance scorer (one of the two players scores during the match)
- Triple Chance Scorer Bet (one of the three players scores during the match)
Criteria for a good bet on goalscorers :
The shape of the player :
The shape of the striker is obviously one of the most important points to take into account. It seems logical, a player who is out of shape, who doesn’t score anymore, and who is criticised by his public, will be mentally in trouble. So you should avoid betting on a striker who is out of form or lacking confidence at all costs. Even if you think he can get back on the ball… Wait until he is back at his best.
We are also thinking of players who have just arrived at a new club. There is no guarantee that he will be as consistent at his new club.
One thinks in particular of Samuel Eto’o, recruited by Anji Makhatchkala and who shone last year at Inter Milan. Author of 13 goals in all competitions combined, he is far from his usual performance in a less competitive championship, for the best paid player in the world in 2011, with a salary approaching 20M euros per year. He is a long way from his level at Inter Milan, where he scored 41 goals in all competitions combined. When he made three starts without scoring a single goal, many people must have bet on him, thinking he would come back.
On the other hand, a striker who has put in a string of good performances and created many opportunities without necessarily scoring will always be interesting to bet on.
If this player scores often, the odds are likely to be lower, but he will be a player you can certainly count on match after match. Sometimes you may think that betting on scorers below a 2.00 odds is not interesting… It’s a relative concept.
The shape of the team :
There’s also a very important point to take into account when betting the goalscorers. When a team is not fit and confident, and when they have a string of average results, there are fewer goals and the goalscorers have fewer opportunities to shine in front of goal.
Conversely, if a team is in a good dynamic, the strikers will have plenty of time to shine.
Take Rauno Sappinen, for example, and his 19 goals in 19 league matches this season with Flora (Estonia). This is a perfect example of a team that turns well, and allows its striker to score often.
On the other hand, we sometimes see quality goalscorers being totally wiped out by the prevailing malaise at a club… Betting on the goalscorers of this team will be disastrous for your bankroll.
Take Tulevik striker Kaimar Saag, for example. After two seasons with 10 or more goals, the Estonian striker has scored only once in 16 games this season, and feels very lonely in the eleven who are sorely lacking in substance…
This is a typical example of a boy who is alone because of a team in poor shape, and on which we should avoid betting, even if the temptation is strong given his statistics from previous years.
The coach's philosophy :
It’s difficult to play a goalscorer in a team that is resolutely defensive. This is the case of Lokomotiv Moscow, for example !
How can you trust the goalscorers of this team when you know their style of play which is not the kind to win its matches 4-0. This greatly reduces your chances of seeing a striker score in this kind of team. Don’t do it !
Conversely, a club like Shakhtar Donetsk is perfect for betting on goalscorers. We know that this is a team that is always looking to score a lot of goals, that’s the philosophy of its technician and its immutable attacking device ! The DNA of this club is a game of possession, very attacking in search of imbalance, this often gives us matches rich in goals ! This naturally introduces us to the next point which deals with the tactical device and the offensive animation.
Tactical device and offensive animation :
Where possible, teams should be sought that play with a tactical device at a point and preferably with a pivot.
We are talking in particular about teams like the Zenith St Petersburg with Artem Dzyuba or a team like the NK Maribor with Luka Zahović (pictured below).
These are players who are tirelessly sought after by their partners and who are constantly hanging around in the penalty area.
Also avoid clubs that play in 433 and where danger can come from anywhere. It’s always a bit of a pain in the ass…In this case, opt for a 2 out of 3 strategy on matches with a good match up.
This is the case of clubs like CFR Cluj with their attacking trio Costache – Rondon – Deac which can be played with this in mind. They have the advantage of being able to score each in the same match given the offensive performance of their club which dominates their championship.
It is not uncommon to see 2 of the 3 scorers of the attacking trident scoring. For this, we advise you to play at least 2 strikers each time. Type Rondon/Deac or Costache/Deac, one covers the other and you will get a profit if both strikers score. This is to secure your goalscoring prognosis.
Here too, you will obviously have to pay attention to the odds. They must remain ” Value “, difficult to play a striker with a 1.40 odds…
The black beasts :
Sometimes, players have an unfortunate tendency to show off against certain opponents…
For example, players who meet their old club ! This is always an element to be taken into account because historically the goalscorers who return to their former teams always want to make people regret their departure from the club… Or to let the managers in place know that they made a mistake by transferring them… A way of settling scores on the pitch.
Dynamo Brest’s players tasted this when former Brest top scorer Pavel Nekhajchik gave victory to BATE Borisov.
There are also those goalscorers who like to hit hard against specific teams, those “black beasts“, who are also great spotters!
Lately, we could take the case of Ivan Trickovski, a player from AEK Larnaca who has always been a poison when he plays against Anorthosis. He scored 10 goals in 11 games against this Cypriot club, impressive !
These are essential data to bet well on goalscorers.
The peculiarities of the player :
One of the things to consider is the penalty shooter in a team. This is essential for betting on goalscorers.
In the best of all worlds, the striker you choose will take the penalties. It is a clear goalscoring opportunity that will allow you to accumulate the chances to see him score.
Often midfielders or even defenders shoot penalties, and these are often good odds to take. It is not easy to detect if the match will see a penalty whistled, however we advise you to make a short list of penalty shooters and keep a close eye on who is refereeing the match.
Do you know all the penalty shooters from each team in the Eastern European championships ?
This is also true for good free-kick shooters… It obviously offers more chances for your striker to stand out.
The home / outdoor advantage :
There is also a particularity to be taken into account, which is the players’ ability to score away or at home. That sometimes makes all the difference.
Indeed, there are players who excel at home but who find it much more difficult to score away from home.
Some players are more comfortable at home than they are away. And vice versa. Check this out.
It’s the same with first and second half goalscorers… A player like Vágner Love (FK Kaïrat Almaty) is much more prolific in the first half.
The warm atmosphere in the stadiums also plays a crucial role, especially for mentally more fragile players.
Weather and ground conditions :
Needless to say, a game played in the snow, in the cold, will have less chance of seeing many goals. Betting on goalscorers in this situation is madness. Conversely, a game played under sunny skies with ideal temperatures will have a better chance of seeing good play and goals.
Also, the condition of the pitch is crucial if you want to see a good football match. This is obvious in national cups for example…
Many bettors expect a goal shower when a professional club faces an amateur or semi-professional club… But in these cases you have to succeed in putting yourself in the players’ shoes. They will not take any risk of injury on this kind of pitch. Once they have the advantage, they will usually play possession football by depriving the opponent of the ball rather than trying to stack the goals.
The opposing team :
Of course, the last important point to take into account is the opponent ! Is it a team that concedes a lot of goals ?
Betting on a striker who plays against one of the best defences in the championship is never a good idea…
This is obvious to many of you, but sometimes we don’t pay attention to it. How many bettors broke their teeth on a Russian team in the group phase of the Champions League ? Solid teams that conceded very few goals. And yet you say to yourself “It’s just Lokomotiv Moscow… they’re going to get run over”… Big mistake.
You should also take a look at the team composition because it says a lot! We will be able to quickly observe if there are any absentees, especially in the defensive sector.
It is important to know that the defensive sector is the most difficult sector for the coach to modulate. The absence of a central defender can considerably affect the automatisms of the defensive line but also the goalkeeper.
An absence in defence can therefore call into question an opponent’s defensive posture and can become a target of choice for betting on goalscorers !
Team composition also says a lot about the coach’s strategy. A team with 3 defenders will play more offensively but will be prone to counter-attacks.
Conversely, a team that puts 5 defenders behind will play closed and we know that it will spend 90 minutes defending. To avoid…